For this first question, start by going to the following hyperlink and downloading the free book on Forecasting Principles and Practices 2nd ed. by Hyndman. Next, skim through the first chapter and then flip through the remainder of the book at your own pace. Respond in the space below by telling a little about what you learned and what you might be able to learn on your own time as you make a personal commitment to read on at a future date. (Note, you now are in the possession of an excellent book on Forecasting methods and practices using a free statistical package called R.)
Question 2 (15 points)
This question focuses on Chapter 2 in your textbook; What is Demand Driven Forecasting. In the space below describe what are the important concepts that need to be remembered regarding the fundamentals of Demand Driven Forecasting. Think carefully about the following as you form your answer:
- Why forecasting is important to businesses?
- What are some of the traditional forecasting methods employed in business and why they don’t work well?
- What exactly is Supply-Driven Forecasting?
- What exactly is Demand Driven Forecasting?
- Explain the following formula and what does it have to do with forecasting accuracy?
Forecast = Trend tâ€“1 + Seasonality tâ€“1 + Cyclical tâ€“1 + Causal Factor(s)tâ€“1 + Unexplained Variance (p. 81)
Retrieved from Chase, C.W. (2013). Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting, 2nd Ed.) John Wiley & Sons P&T, 2013-08-12. VitalBook file.
Question 3 (15 points)
In Chapter 3 you were introduced to an Overview of Forecasting Methods. You will have learned that there are two broad categories of forecasting. Review both of these methods and then explain:
- How these two forecasting categories differ?
- The principle forecasting methods employed in each category?
- Advantages, disadvantages, and relative effectiveness of each method?
Question 4 (20 points)
In Chapter 4, you were introduced to various methods for assessing forecast accuracy. For this question, begin by downloading the attached Excel File and complete the forecasting accuracy exercise. When completed upload to the completed excel file here. Use the naming convention SmityQ4FinalExam
Question 5 (15 points)
This question references chapter 5 in your textbook: Quantitative forecasting Methods Using Time Series Methods. Briefly explain the following Quantitative Time Series methods and give an example of when each method would be most appropriately applied:
- Moving Averages
- Exponential Smoothing
- Single Exponential Smoothing
- Holt’s Two-Parameter Method
Question 6 (20 points)
Use the attached Excel Spreadsheet template to complete a regression analysis tracking Regular Gas Prices (the dependent variable) as affected by Crude Oil prices (the independent variable). Instructions for the three Tasks are included in the attached file. Use the naming convention SmityQ6FinalExam